In the end, the worst fears have been confirmed. The Russian army launched an attack from different points of the border, including Belarus, aiming to "demilitarize" Ukraine, according to the words used by Putin himself. The attack was launched at dawn, while the United Nations Security Council was in the middle of a meeting.
Western countries and NATO have reacted by condemning this attack and reassuring the neighboring member countries about their security. But what is certain is that the worst scenario has already begun, and the attacks on Ukraine will likely continue, culminating with a full invasion.
Both US and European stock indices fell more than 2%, gold has exceeded the pivot zone of $1915/ounce and was heading towards the technical target level of $1960/ounce.
Oil rose more than $5 after the news came out, marking new year-on-year highs. Industry analysts do not rule out that it will exceed the $100 zone in the short term.
In the forex market, the US Dollar strengthened against all its peers, except the yen, which acts as a refuge currency. In the case of the EUR/USD, it broke down the 1.1285 zone and was heading towards a new objective at 1.1200. The next level would be at 1.1130.
Europe would be the most affected region if, as it seems, the war would spread. In such a scenario, the euro would have no reason to rise, especially if the ECB abandons any attempt to raise interest rates due to uncertainties caused by the conflict.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters.
